Forget the Polls, Turnout Is What Counts

As Polls Swing Back and Forth, You Can Make a Change by Voting and Getting Others to Vote: Increase Turnout

The polls show that as of Sunday morning, Trump is leading in Arizona, Harris is leading in Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina and they are in a Dead Heat in Michigan and Pennsylvania. If you are a Harris supporter, you can rejoice that she is in the lead in five out of seven swing states. Also, Harris is taking a lead in Red State Iowa. But all of the results are in what pollsters and statisticians say is in the Margin of Error. So, don’t take comfort in these polls; what they really predict is uncertainty.

Remember that in 2004 John Kerry was the poll leader prior to the election, but he lost. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was the leader in the polls up to the election, but she lost.

So don’t trust the polls as they are subject to many factors, including bad assumptions by the pollsters, voter false reporting their true leanings, voters saying they are likely voters when they have no concrete plan to vote and pollster error in recording responses, among other error producing factors.

Here is what the New York Times Polling Reporter said about polls:

A note of caution to poll-watchers everywhere: These polls are snapshots in time and subject to all kinds of errors and uncertainty, and, importantly, they are not predictions of what will happen. Polls are an excellent tool for telling us the issues and attitudes that are driving people’s votes, but they are imperfect at assessing such incredibly close elections with precision. We will likely know the outcome of the election in a few days but right now the polls cannot tell us, with certainty, what will happen.

The only real clear determinate of election results is Turnout. Which candidate has the better operation knocking on doors and encouraging people to vote. Harris appears to have a good ground game, as it is called, with volunteers knocking on doors and calling voters on the phone. Trump has entrusted most of his ground game to Elon Musk who pays people to canvas for Trump, but Musk’s operation has been plagued by many reports that Musk-Trump canvassers are submitting false information claiming they knocked on doors when they did not, and they used geo locating to submit false canvassing reports to headquarters to increase their pay. That’s what happens when Trump could not get enough volunteers and relied on Musk to bankroll the operation so Trump would not have to pay for it.

So, it is up to all of us to call our family, friends and neighbors to encourage them to vote in order to increase turnout. Some say there is nothing they can do to alter the presidential race, but that is not true as everyone can use their voice and writing to increase voter turnout.

Now, what are some of the latest news from the presidential race? Biden flubbed a line about Trump’s “comic” saying Puerto Rico is an island of garbage. So Trump wanted to emphasize Biden’s statement by riding a garbage truck, but Trump could not open the door to the truck and had a hard time getting his overweight body into the truck for which he needed staff pushing assistance into his garbage truck seat.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., in a shock to the Kennedy family, announced he was running for president but then withdrew due to a lack of support, so he pledged for Trump. But is he a Trump asset? Kennedy has now said Trump will remove fluoride from drinking water. I thought that issue was resolved in favor of fluoride fifty years ago.

Kennedy also said that Trump would appoint him to a high level role on health and women’s health issues. So, women, you can look forward to Trump and Kennedy being in charge of women’s health, and Kennedy with his unsupported opposition to vaccines, will seek to impose restrictions on vaccines, including all the childhood vaccines that have kept this country safe from diseases like polio.

Trump has said that the Christian right will have significant say in Trumpian national policy, so there goes the Establishment Clause to the Constitution, the First Amendment principal barring Establishment of religion by government. Trump’s three appointed Justices to the Supreme Court have already minimized and neutralized the effect of the Constitution’s Establishment Clause.

Of course Trump’s three Justices have joined with three other conservative-reactionaries to eliminate women’s right to reproductive freedom by their decision overturning the fifty-year precedent of Roe v. Wade and abolished women’s Constitutional right to reproductive freedom. Those three Trump Justices, following Trump’s history of lying, testified at their confirmation hearings, under oath, that they supported Roe v. Wade as an important and long-standing precedent. But despite those claims to obtain confirmation, when they got the first opportunity, they overruled Roe v. Wade and said it was based on invalid legal arguments. Of course, the Trump Justices ignored the argument that requiring a woman to carry a pregnancy to term, when she did not want to, was a violation of women’s right to be free of involuntary servitude as guaranteed by the Thirteenth Amendment to the Constitution.

Remember that Trump actually said he wanted to abolish the Constitution. That from your self-proclaimed protector of your rights.

Now how about Harris? She has created a new example of hitting the ground running. Biden withdraws, throws his support to Harris, and she keeps the Campaign staff on-board, and within a few days she has majority support from the Democratic Party and begins her race to the White House. Talk about a quick exit from the starting gate.

Harris strongly supports a woman’s right to choose, no matter where she lives in the US. She promises to sign a Bill to legislate a woman’s right to choose and to bar prosecution of the woman, her doctors or hospital staff who assist in an abortion.

Harris promotes workers’ right to unionize and the right of the unions to negotiate fair labor contracts without unfair labor practices by management.

Harris supports Israel’s right of self-defense, but she has raised serious concerns about how Israel has conducted the war in Gaza and Lebanon by causing thousands of Palestinian civilian deaths. Netanyahu has been leading Biden around by the nose, and Biden has virtually no influence over Israeli war tactics. Harris should make stronger statements about the massive civilian deaths in both Gaza and Lebanon, and she should promise to exercise strong influence over Netanyahu’s war tactics, influence which starts with US weapons delivery to Israel.

What will happen on Election Day? Who will lead? What lies and conspiracy theories will Trump advance starting the evening of Election Day? Will women increase their rate of participation to vote for abortion rights, especially in the States that have voter approval of abortion amendments to state constitutions.

I do predict the election will decided by the end of the week. Trump lawyers may be reticent to make false claims in court like the Giuliani parade of court lies in 2020 that got him disbarred.

But one thing is sure: Voter Turnout is the key indicator; the polls and their analysis are just fluff without consequence. So, as Michelle Obama said, “Do Something.”