Pundits and Pollsters Are Wrong Again

Early on in 2022, there seemed to be unanimity amongst the self-appointed pundits that the Democrats would definitely lose the House and possibly also the Senate. Did they derive this from focus groups, polling, or

voter analysis? No, it was a media message broadcast and printed everywhere, and by nearly every source that broadcasts and prints pundit observations. Where was the source of this media message? Did pundits receive briefing papers from some source causing them to have a uniform message?

There is no clear source for the media story, but suspicion lies with media owners who sought to project their views through their pundit class. Pundits do not need any credentials? They rely on past fame, notoriety, or past participation on talk shows to get their pundit badges. Why should we listen to them when they are so often completely wrong? Why do we allow them to be “opinion leaders” when their opinions are not worth any more than many of ours?

Then there are the pathetic pollsters. They keep issuing their polls though they are consistently wrong, often by margins so wide that one wonders if they ever contacted voters. Though I am not an expert in polling, despite one political science course on the subject, but I do wonder if the small sample sizes for many of these polls is part of the problem. Then there is voter reluctance to: (1) answer the telephone from an unknown caller, (2) accurately state their real views, (3) give misleading answers to the pollsters, (4) not having a formed opinion on an issue or candidate when they say they do, or (5) being unwilling to respond to pollsters’ questions that the voter deems too misleading, vague or framed to require a specific answer.

Then there are pollsters who are not really nonpartisan but actually support certain candidates or positions. There was a wave of Republican oriented polls released just before the mid-term elections predicting Republican victories that did not happen, and it seems that some of these polls were not designed to give accurate voter sentiment, but rather, to be published to convince voters of a certain position or to support a certain candidate. These are polls used as political weapons not information sources.

But the mid-term voting proved that the voters are not deluded by the pollsters and pundits and are willing to express their own views at the polling place: be it in-person voting, vote-by-mail, drop box voting or early voting. It is a pleasure to see democracy being alive and well in the United States despite our fears and trepidation before the election results were released.

Democracy requires truth to survive. A government or candidates living on lies, deception, and misrepresentations cannot survive as a democracy. George Orwell magnificently described what happens in his book “1984.” Dictatorship, autocracy and disenfranchisement are the results if truth is not an abiding principle for office holders, candidates, pundits and pollsters.

So, let’s give a shout-out for truth in democracy.