Russia's Accomplices in its War in Ukraine

Saudi Arabia, Iran, China and India, Each in Their Own Way Help Putin

Photo by Adam Śmigielski on Unsplash

As Putin continues his grossly misconceived war in Ukraine, he has found allies in his neighborhood who have helped him sustain his war of aggression.

Recently joining the ranks of Putin’s accomplices is Saudi Arabia which recently agreed with Putin to reduce oil production to keep oil prices high. Saudi Arabia is benefitting itself with high prices, but its action helps Putin raise revenue received by Russia which helps it wage it’s war in Ukraine. Biden made his trip to visit the killer MBS and did that little fist pump picture with him thinking this might keep him out of Putin’s group of aiders and abettors. But trusting MBS to do the right thing was never in the cards, and Biden should have known better.

But when MBS and the Saudi clan see an opportunity to increase their own oil revenues, they could care less even if this also helps fund Putin’s war effort.

Then there is Iran: in my view the Great Satan of the 21st century. Iran as we now know is supplying Putin with kamikaze drones which are flown by Russians into Ukraine where they dive and crash into targets exploding on impact. Putin has been using the Iranian drones to attack Ukrainian infrastructure, but Putin is also using them to continue his reign of terror on the Ukrainian civilian population, unleashing the drones to kill civilians in Kyiv and throughout Ukraine. Reports coming out in the last few days indicate that Iran has sent military personnel to Crimea to give instruction to the Russians on how to effectively use their kamikaze drones. Reports also indicate that Russia has depleted many of its cruise and other guided long range missiles, so it needs these Iranian kamikaze drones to maintain its waves of Ukrainian destruction and death to the civilian population.

While Iran is assisting Putin’s war effort, it now has its first major home grown protest movement initiated by women protesting the death of a young Iranian woman for not wearing her hajib properly, according to the religious police: a very scary concept. Women have been demonstrating, ripping off their head scarves and burning them in public displays of opposition to the Iranian clerical regime. The demonstrations have been attacked by the Iranian security forces, and video of Iranian security firing weapons into protestors have been posted on the internet. Reports indicate high levels of brutality by the security forces, but the demonstrations continue. Just this evening a video was posted of people in an apartment building singing they do not want the clerical regime to remain in power.

Now step back a second and note that Iran and Saudi Arabia hate each other. The war in Yemen sees the Saudi and Iranian forces on opposite sides in that civil war in a desperately poor Yemen. But both the Saudis and Iranians are aiding Putin in what could devolve into a three legged relationship whose direction is hard to predict.

Then there are China and India which have aided Putin’s Ukrainian war effort by buying increased amounts of Russian oil, and at higher prices, aided by the Russia-Saudi alliance, China and India can expect to pay higher oil prices, though Xi has told Putin that he wants a discount if China is to remain a leading customer for Russian oil.

Though both India and China have given no indication that they will reduce their Russian oil purchases, both Xi Jinping and Narena Modi, Prime Minister of India, have both recently cautioned Putin about his Ukrainian war. Modi told Putin directly that this was a time for peace and not a time of war, and he made that statement face to face to Putin at a recent summit in Uzbekistan. Xi has been less direct but has emphasized respecting national sovereignty of all nations. However, in one of the more laughable statements after the Xi and Putin meeting in Samarkand, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, issued a statement saying in part:

The two countries have maintained close coordination on the international stage to uphold basic norms of international relations. In the face of changes of the world, of our times and of history, China will work with Russia to fulfill their responsibilities as major countries and play a role in injecting stability into a world of change and disorder.

That is a hard statement to swallow saying Russia and China have upheld basic norms of international relations and that they are injecting stability into a world of change and disorder. And there is nothing more anathema to Xi than disorder and lack of stability.

So, Putin has his accomplices in his war in Ukraine, but perhaps India and China are suggesting some quiet advice to Putin, but if they have, his recent actions do not show it. Putin’s strategic calculations have been inept, and his recent mobilization of men to fight in Ukraine has led to mass emigration of Russian men to avoid Putin’s grip, and at the same time Putin invites strong rebellion by dragging conscripts to the front lines in Ukraine with minimal training. As several commentators have noted, Putin seems only interested in sending men to Ukraine to serve as cannon fodder. Putin’s actions seem born of desperation and refusal to listen to any Russian insiders urging caution, assuming there are any.

This brings to mind a story about a man in Moscow who every day goes to a news stand and buys a paper, looks at the front page, and then throws it away. The man repeats this every day, buying the newspaper, reading the front page and then throwing it away. Finally, one day the news dealer says to the man that he appreciates him buying the newspaper daily, but why does he read the front page and then throws it away. The man says I am looking for an obituary, and the news dealer says, but they don’t print obituaries on the front page. The man says, “They will for the one I am looking for.”

i